OWN THE FUTURE.

OWN THE FUTURE · 04 OF 05

Climate & Resource Scarcity

Energy, water and materials: the shift from scarcity to closed loops, and the technology driving it.

Clean Energy Batteries & Storage Water Food & Agriculture Circular Economy
Lighthouse in breaking surf, black and white

The shift

In ten years the cost of solar power fell by almost 90%.

When clean energy becomes the cheapest, it wins on economics, not on ideology. That is how the transition scales.

Source: IRENA, cost of solar PV electricity 2010 to 2020.

Season 4 · Introduction

What is climate and resource scarcity?

Climate and resource scarcity is about how the world will get electricity, water, food and materials to more people without the resources running out along the way. A good way to see how fast this area is moving is to look at batteries, the technology that powers electric cars and stores electricity so that it is still there when the sun is not shining or the wind is not blowing.

In 2010 a lithium-ion battery, the most common type of battery today, cost 1,400 dollars per kilowatt hour. A kilowatt hour is the same unit that appears on your electricity bill. Here it describes how much electricity the battery can store. By 2023 the price had fallen to under 140 dollars per kilowatt hour, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). That is a fall to about a tenth of the price, in thirteen years.

Counted in the same money: what cost a thousand kronor in 2010 costs about a hundred today.

The fall in price is linked to how much is being built. The IEA writes that the energy sector's share of all demand for lithium-ion batteries, meaning electric cars and storage for the grid rather than phones and computers, went from half in 2016 to over 90% in 2023, while the whole battery market grew tenfold over the same period. The more batteries are made, the more the factories learn, and research brings better chemistry. Both push the price down, and a lower price attracts more buyers, which in turn gives manufacturers a reason to build even more batteries. In 2023 alone, storage facilities with a combined capacity of 42 gigawatts were built around the world, from large plants on the grid to small systems for homes and villages. Capacity is a measure of how much electricity can be delivered at once.

But cheaper batteries do not solve resource scarcity on their own. They move the problem somewhere else. The metal inside the batteries also has to be mined from the ground. Demand for lithium, one of the main ingredients, tripled between 2017 and 2022, with the energy sector as the single largest cause, according to the IEA.

The fall in battery prices and the growth in demand for lithium are the same story seen from two sides. Technology gets cheaper as it is built at large scale, and that scale in turn puts new pressure on the resources the technology depends on.

Education, not advice.

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